Decade of decadence?

New materials and methods helped to produce an array of sci-fi structures across the world in the past 10 years, leading the architecture of the decade to serve as a representation of our penchant for excess, according to one overseas critic. The writer calls the BMW Museum in Munich, Germany, a "nightmarish" example of the need for attention and personal gratification.

So, what do you think? Was there an excess in self-promotion in architecture in the turn of the century? Will the economic downturn lead to a more conservative approach in the next decade or so?

Phoenix falling

The Associated General Contractors of America, facing the potential of another 430,000 job losses in 2010 in the wake of 20% unemployment through the end of this year, is encouraging federal lawmakers to pass new transportation spending measures. Officials hope that will ease some of the bloodletting, but it may be too late for former hotbed Phoenix, which lost more construction jobs from October 2008 through October 2009 than any other major U.S. market.

"There's almost no place to go but up," AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson said, referring to the dire situation facing general contractors these days. So, while the national unemployment rate is down to 10%, things continue to look bleak on the construction arena and in commercial real estate.

In one glimmer of hope, it looks like about 400 workers will be needed to build the biggest wind farm in the U.S. in Oregon, after General Electric secured the $1.4-billion contract. Shepherd's Flat is expected to be able to power 235,000 California homes and will supply 10% of Southern California Edison's renewable energy.

So, how long do you think the downturn will last for the construction industry? How much worse will it get?

From Hot Firm to closed - but how?

In August, Cubellis was #13 on The Zweig Letter Hot Firm List. A little more than three months later, the 175-person Boston-based architecture and engineering firm was closing its doors, largely because Sovereign Bank froze its line of credit, according to President and CEO Lenord Cubellis.

So, do you expect to see more of this in 2010 - firms unable to stay open because banks are getting less lenient with letting them slide? Our founder, Mark Zweig, says that wouldn't have happened in the recent past but speculates it will happen more in the future. Do you agree? Have you seen this happen first-hand? Are you hoping your firm won't follow in Cubellis' footsteps? Do you learn anything from their misfortune?

The walls are closing in

There was an interesting piece in The Wall Street Journal yesterday on how office space is becoming a little cozier during these tough economic times. I'm sure you'll notice that most of the firms profiled in the story are from the AEC space, and some of them are big boys like Stantec and HOK, both of whom are always at or near the top of The Zweig Letter Hot Firm List.

So, what's your firm doing in this regard? Are you trimming the office space as a way to save money? How are you finding the negotiations when your lease expires or is up for renewal? Are prices more reasonable than in the past because any occupant is a good occupant in a landlord's mind?

Get inspired to be creative

I came across this collection of wacky roadside architecture today and saw it as my duty to share it with all of you. Sure, there's a time and a place for standard buildings and following the lead of historic edifices. But what seems to be lacking in this age of "get it done and move on to the next job" is a spark of creativity that could really set your project apart. Some people might hate it, others will love it, but EVERYONE will be talking about it, and enough people with deep pockets and land to go with it will notice and want to bring your firm aboard when it's time for their next building to go up. Sure, it takes a unique owner to open a donut shop shaped like a donut or a clam shack shaped like a take-out box, but it doesn't hurt to toss the idea out there and see what your client thinks.

Let's make a deal

I spent three days last week at ZweigWhite's 2009 Mergers & Acquisitions Summit, meeting some of the industry's top wheelers and dealers and hearing about some of their successes and even some of their failures, a rare treat for journalists-- and for potential first-time buyers or sellers, I'd imagine. We'll have plenty of coverage of the Summit in the December issue of AEC Finance News, but my overall impression of the event after attending for the second year in a row is there was much more conversation among those who were there than last year, when interaction was at a minimum in the early days of the economic meltdown. I'm not saying there will be more deals in the next 12 months than there were this year, but it was good to see more firm leaders thinking about buying rather than selling.

Mixed bag for construction industry

As we turn the calendar and enter the final month of 2009, it's still a bit unclear where the AEC industry is headed. On the one hand, highway construction projects that were on the fast track because of the $787 billion economic stimulus package are slowing, meaning more job cuts on the horizon for that segment. On the other hand, the U.S. Commerce Department says construction spending was up slighlty in October, with an increase in home building offsetting the continued decline on the non-residential side.

So, how do you read the tea leaves? What do you see on the horizon for the rest of this year and the end of the decade over the next 12 months or so? Will we close the first part of the new millennium on a high note or do we have a dreaded W curve on the way, with another dip still to come?